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| Winning one of these or winning American Idol is a dream come true for millions. |
The Oscars still have cultural relevance: it's one of the few entertainment award ceremonies that still do. Let's be honest, nobody takes the Grammys seriously, which means that nobody takes the American Country Music Awards or the SOURCE Awards seriously.
The Emmys...well, I will say that people are beginning to realize that we live in a Golden Age of television, but because we live in a Golden Age, a well-deserved program, performer, or creator is bound to get snubbed. So, those awards are diluted.
The Oscars still mean something, because casual moviegoers can prognosticate on international film making, give gut reactions on meaningful documentary film making, and wax poetic on the intricacies of technical production all while guessing which favorite actor or actress will take home a statuette. It's the nexus of popular Hollywood and auteur film making (excluding Cannes, Tribeca Film Festival, and Sundance).
On the flipside of that viewpoint, there's been plenty of criticism of the Oscars. I won't rehash it all here, but a taste of what's been said goes into how...
How the Academy is made up of old, white men
How race is portrayed in films (of course, this is a very limited discussion on simply black women, but I digress)
How the Oscars aren't even relevant anymore
For my money, the Oscars still deliver, even though I haven't seen the majority of nominated performances and films. The great thing about good films is that you can watch a good one years after it comes out and it will still be great.
Music, popular music at least, has a shelf life of only a few years. Nobody still listens to the Black Eyed Peas' "Let's Get it Started" unless they're working out or completely out of any other music.
The Oscars is a glamorous advertisement of what movies to watch if you're a bit behind the curve...like me. For instance, I watched Midnight In Paris on Friday night...a mere 48 hours before the Oscars, and that is the ONLY nominated film that I watched. Does this lack of exposure make me qualified to make predictions on who the winners will be in the big categories? Of course!
So, here are my predictions for the 2012 Oscars. I know this is blog is being published only a few hours before the live broadcast of the awards ceremony, but if I get even ONE of these right, I deserve a strong pat on the back. Here we go (predicted winners are in BOLD).
The Artist (Michel Hazanavicius)
The Descendants (Alexander Payne)
Hugo (Martin Scorsese)
Midnight In Paris (Woody Allen)
Tree of Life (Terence Malick)
Snap Judgment Reasoning: Malick's film, while beautiful, confused audiences. Alexander Payne had George Clooney, so he had tons of help. Woody made a good movie, but not as good as his previous winners (Hannah and Her Sisters and Annie Hall), and Hazanavicius can't beat both Woody Allen and Scorsese. Scorsese wins because he made a heart-felt, semi-autobiographical film that did justice to 3-D.
The Descendants (Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash)
Hugo (John Logan)
The Ides of March (George Clooney & Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon)
Moneyball (Steve Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin. Story by Stan Chervin)
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (Bridget O'Connor and Peter Straughan)
Snap Judgment Reasoning: Everyone loved the quirky insights into how rich people in Hawaii live. A realistic story with entertaining consequences (I guess). I still haven't see the movie yet. This beats a "kid's movie", a political thriller (with a seemingly liberal bent), an adaptation of a book about baseball statistics, and adaptation of a deliberate spy thriller. The deliberate spy thriller is great, but probably (I'm guessing) not better than the book (from what I've heard). Again, haven't seen any of these movies. The Descendants win.
The Artist (Michel Hazanavicius)
Bridesmaids (Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig)
Margin Call (J.C. Chandor)
Midnight In Paris (Woody Allen)
A Separation (Asghar Farhadi)
Snap Judgment Reasoning: I saw Bridesmaids and it was totally funny. Was it funny enough to be nominated for best writing? Probably! I was more satisfied with that ending than I was with the ending to Midnight In Paris (which I also enjoyed). I want to see Margin Call but, as relevant as it is, nobody is talking about that film as much as they are about A Separation- which should hopefully give military leaders pause as they develop attack plans on Iran. Please don't start another war. Anyway, A Separation wins.
Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)
Viola Davis (The Help)
Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)
Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
Michelle Williams (My Week With Marilyn)
Snap Judgment Reasoning: Black people are awesome at playing maids! Also awesome at playing corrupt cops (See Mr. Denzel Washington in his award-winning role in Training Day), broken-down, yet highly sexual women (see Ms. Halle Berry in Monster's Ball) and other black people (see Mr. Jaime Foxx in Ray). That being said, when was the last time a person of Asian descent won best actor or best actress? When was the last time a Native American starred in a motion picture that grossed over $50 million? The answer to both is: NEVER. This is the toughest category, in my opinion, and people's (legitimate) complaints about race in film shouldn't discount a legitimately outstanding performance by Viola Davis...from what I've heard- I haven't seen The Help. I'm sure she'll win.
Demian Bichir (A Better Life)
George Clooney (The Descendants)
Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)
Brad Pitt (Moneyball)
Snap Judgment Reasoning: I feel like the best actor category this year is perfectly set-up for Mr. Dujardin to take home an award. He starred in the most critically acclaimed major film this year, he's going against two of the biggest Hollywood stars who could cancel out each other's vote (Clooney and Pitt) and he's super handsome. I'd love to be able to pull off the pencil-thin moustache without looking like a creep, but that's why I'm writing on a friend's blog instead of getting my Oscar acceptance speech ready. I guess he was pretty good in The Artist (hearsay) and I'm sure he'll win it.
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse
Snap Judgment Reasoning: I'm not sure I understand the reasoning of expanding the number of nominees for best picture. A few years back, the Academy decided to make trivia contests ten times harder by increasing the number of nominees from just five to between five and ten. What's that about? Hey Academy, if you're gonna expand the category, let's toss a few comedies in the best picture mix. Dramas are great, but comedies can be just as important and just as moving. Of course this year, a silent film is nominated and despite all of the fluffy hubbub over the fact that it is silent and in black-and-white, people are RAVING about this movie. Of all the movies on the list that I haven't seen, The Artist is the one that I want to see the most. And for that reason alone, I predict that it will win the Oscar.
Did I make terrible predictions? Am I a wannabe film critic? Do you hate movies? Sound off in the comments section!
I was going to do a post about Oscar results, but I'll hold that off for a day to let Art have a little more time at the top of the page and so everyone can see how wrong he was. Actually, my predictions were about the same. Except I thought Woody Allen would win for Orignial Screenplay, Moneyball would win for Adapted Screenplay and Michel Hazanavicius would win for Directing. I'll have more tomorrow.
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